THODDS / PUBLIC EXPECTATIONS
Prediction Market Observatory
Top 5 movers 24 hours
Checking movement across sources...
Sample: up to 100 Polymarket markets by 24h volume, up to three pages of 200 open Kalshi markets, and up to 100 Manifold binary markets by 24h activity. Only priced, unexpired markets appear.
Recorded market observations
Selected observations from the collected sample. Times below are UTC.
| Question / source | Probability | Outcome | Observed (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Galatasaray score over 3.5 goals? | 50.0% | Yes | |
| Detroit wins by over 4.5 runs? | 24.0% | Yes | |
| Will over 7.5 goals be scored? | 8.5% | Yes | |
| REVENIX wins | 50.0% | Yes | |
| Matrix wins | 50.0% | Yes | |
| All Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027? | 8.0% | Yes | |
| In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice? | 80.9% | Yes | |
| In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? | 30.0% | Yes | |
| Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030? | 86.0% | Yes | |
| Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? | 5.2% | Yes | |
| US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Coco Gauff | 53.5% | Mirra Andreeva | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 46.5% | Yes | |
| US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx | 62.5% | Karen Khachanov | |
| LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | 22.5% | Yes | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 53.5% | Yes |
Prediction markets and public expectations
Prediction markets attach prices to possible outcomes of events. THodds brings together a sample of probabilities from Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold, covering questions in politics, economics, technology, sports and other topics. Market prices reflect participating traders and forecasters, not a representative opinion poll or a guarantee of what will happen.
What does a probability change mean?
A move from 40% to 55% is an increase of 15 percentage points. The top movers rank the largest absolute 24-hour changes among fresh observations with available comparisons. A move may reflect new information, limited liquidity or an event approaching resolution; it does not establish the cause by itself.
Why do platforms disagree?
Questions may have different deadlines, outcome definitions and resolution rules. Participation and liquidity also vary. Similar titles do not establish that two markets describe the same event. Manifold activity is measured in play-money mana, while the other feeds report different activity units.
How current and complete is the data?
Collection is scheduled every five minutes. Coverage is a bounded sample, not every market on each platform. Recorded history begins when THodds first observes a market and is retained for 30 days. Missing comparisons remain unavailable, and stale observations are excluded from top movers. Hourly chart averages can differ from the latest probability.
THodds currently provides observation and research; it does not place orders or accept deposits. Source methodology: Polymarket API, Kalshi API, Manifold API. Topics are estimated from question text. Metaculus is not connected. Watchlists are stored only in this browser.