Last updated: January 2026 • Reviewed for mathematical accuracy
ICM (Independent Chip Model) is a mathematical model used in poker tournaments to convert chip stacks into real money equity.
Unlike cash games, tournament chips do not have linear value. Doubling your stack does not double your payout expectation.
In cash games:
1 chip = 1 dollar.
In tournaments:
Chips represent a probability of finishing in each payout position.
Because payouts are top-heavy, chip value decreases as your stack grows.
ICM estimates your probability of finishing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc., based on stack sizes.
Those probabilities are multiplied by payout amounts to calculate your real monetary equity.
Three players remain:
Payout:
ICM estimates each player’s probability of finishing in each position.
The chip leader does not automatically “own” $1000.
Near the money bubble, ICM pressure becomes extreme.
Calling ranges become tighter than Nash equilibrium because busting carries heavy monetary penalty.
Chip EV (cEV) measures expected chip gain.
ICM measures expected prize money gain.
A play can be +cEV but –$EV under ICM.
Under ICM pressure:
Understanding ICM separates advanced tournament players from basic push/fold chart users.
Fold equity becomes more valuable near payout jumps.
Opponents may fold hands that are technically profitable in chip EV terms.
An ICM calculator will estimate real-money equity based on:
This tool will be added to thodds in a future release.